Syria: What’s Next? Should Israel Be Concerned?

Photo Credit: Doron Horowitz/Flash90

The Israel-Syria border in the Golan Heights, March 24, 2023.

I must admit that I’m quite amused by the discussions among Israelis on social media regarding what would be better for Israel in Syria: the continuation of Assad’s regime or a rebel-controlled Syria, where many factions lean toward ISIS and al-Qaeda.

1. No one is asking for our opinion, and Israel cannot stop the rebels in Syria. All we can do is observe, learn, and draw conclusions.

2. For Israel, the Syrian rebels are the most effective ground force to meticulously and efficiently clear out all remnants of Iran and Hezbollah from Syria. They are far more effective (and ruthless) than the Lebanese army, which was tasked with clearing Hezbollah from southern Lebanon. The rebels face no constraints.

3. If Israel perceives a specific threat, such as strategic weapons falling into rebel hands, it can respond (as it has reportedly done recently, according to foreign sources).

4. Between 2016 and 2018, Israel provided significant assistance to the rebels in southern Syria, including financial aid, equipment, and medical support (even treating the wounded in Israeli territory). This was part of the IDF’s “Good Neighbor” operation. It’s reasonable to assume Israel has a solid foundation for dialogue with the rebels in southern Syria.

5. In the immediate term, the rebels have no reason to see Israel (or even Russia) as an enemy. Their primary goal right now is to establish stable governance within Syria’s current borders. As for the future—everything is open.

In short, Israel has limited options and little to worry about at the moment, apart from safeguarding its key interests against this emerging new force in Syria. For better or worse.

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As I noted several times over the weekend, the rebels in the near term appear focused on consolidating control within Syria and rebuilding the state from within. They are currently seeking to minimize unnecessary conflicts and avoid creating additional enemies.

Their primary and sole adversary remains the Assad regime. At this stage, they are not looking to antagonize other actors, including Russia or Israel.

As for the future—everything remains open.