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While the rebel factions have deep political divisions, their united goal in toppling the Al-Assad regime is the driving force behind this lightning offensive.
By SETH J. FRANTZMAN DECEMBER 7, 2024 14:31 Updated: DECEMBER 7, 2024 15:29
A rebel fighter sits on the back of a vehicle in Homs countryside, after Syrian rebels pressed on in their lightning advance on Saturday.
(photo credit: REUTERS/Mahmoud Hasano)
Syrian rebel groups have made major advances against the Syrian regime in southern Syria over the last two days. Many of these rebel groups who once operated near Dara’a in southern Syria near the Jordanian border had reconciled with the Syrian regime.
This reconciliation did not always go smoothly because a low-level insurgency continued since 2018 when the groups laid down their arms. This has important ramifications for Israel because the groups operate not far from the Golan border.
The rebel groups appeared to retake control of much of the area they controlled back in 2018 over a 48-hour period from December 6 to 7 in southern Syria. This is a large area that includes the Jordanian border, the city of Dara’a and the countryside around it. The groups are reportedly also moving into areas near Quneitra near the border with Israel. The rebel groups here are often called the Southern Operations Room of the Syrian Rebellion.
Levant24 noted that “Syrian revolution forces, led by the Southern Operations Room and the Command of Military Operations (CMO), have made sweeping territorial gains across multiple provinces, including Hama, Homs, and Daraa, as they push towards Damascus in their effort to topple the Assad regime. The developments signal a turning point in the ongoing conflict, with regime forces reportedly retreating under pressure and civilian resistance bolstering the revolution.”
The situation is changing rapidly. Rebel groups continue to take areas in Dara’a province. This is symbolically important because the Syrian rebellion began here back in 2011. Throughout part of the Syrian civil war, these groups received some support from Jordan and the West.
Rapid progress made
However, they eventually surrendered in 2018 and were reconciled with the Syrian regime. Some of the forces joined Syrian army units. As the rebels have advanced, it appears some of the forces had the chance to leave their Syrian army units and rejoin the rebellion, having been only tacitly “reconciled” with the regime. For instance, the Syrian regime’s 9th division received a large number of reconciled fighters, according to a study from Middle East Institute. Reports that a base of the regime’s 34th Brigade, which is part of the division, fell to rebels on December 7 might indicate that reconciled units simply melted away from this division.
It is not clear what has become of the Russian-backed 5th Corps, which had been active in southern Syria. This corps has been the center of numerous controversies since 2018. The Syrian regime forces in southern Syria appear to have collapsed completely. The Syrian-Jordanian border is 233 miles long. It appears the rebels in Dara’a have already taken more than 100 miles of this border. The rest consists of open desert.
Jordan sees these developments as a sensitive issue. The kingdom closed its Nassib crossing with Syria on December 6. There was a Jordanian border crossing near Ramtha, although it is apparently closed. Reports on December 7 indicated that the rebels had seen so much success in Dara’a that they want to march on Damascus, which is around 100km north of Dara’a.
Another key part of the border area with Jordan is the Druze area of southern Syria centered on Suwayda. This is an area called Hauran that includes Jabal al-Druze, or the Druze mountain region. Druze rebelled here against the Ottomans in 1909 and against the French in the 1920s. There was a Druze state here in 1921. Therefore, the Druze area has a history of a desire for autonomy. Around fifty miles to the east of the Druze area is another key area that is important for the rebellion against the regime. This is the area of US-backed Syrian rebels around Tanf base. The base is a US garrison that dates back eight years in Syria and was supposed to train rebels to fight ISIS. The group being trained is called the Maghawir al-Thawra, or MaT for short. It is called the Revolutionary Commando Army in English but is also called the Syria Free Army.
Importance of offensive
What matters for our purposes is not the name but the progress the group made recently. It had been in an area called Tanf in the desert near the Jordanian-Iraq border. This area had a 55km zone around it, basically a half circle, that the US kept the regime out of. The regime had attacked this area with drones, and Kataib Hezbollah even targeted an area in Jordan called Tower 22 near here, killing three American personnel in January 2024. Now, the shoe is on the other foot, and these rebel groups have burst out of Tanf and headed toward Palmyra. They also reportedly took a strategic mountain called Gharab near the Iraqi border.
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Shaam online media said that “the Free Syrian Army factions in the Al-Tanf area announced today, Saturday, December 7, 2024, the start of their military movement in the Syrian Badia region east of Homs, and launching attacks against regime positions, in parallel with the battles taking place on the outskirts of the northern city of Homs, and the exit of the Daraa and Sweida governorates from the control of the regime, in a scene that seems to lead to tightening the noose and imposing a comprehensive siege on the center of the capital, Damascus.”
The offensive by the rebel group from Tanf is important as it cuts off the Iranian-backed movement from Albukamal toward Palmyra and also toward other bases in the desert called T3, T4, and T2. T4, or Tiyas base, was a key base for the Russians and Iranians.
The Iranians even tried to fly a Khorded air defense system into that base in April 2018. Albukamal, on the Syrian border with Iraq, is important because Kataib Hezbollah once had a base there until a June 2018 airstrike. Iran then built a base called Imam Ali near there. Now it appears the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces have taken Albukamal as well as Deir Ezzor. This apparently caused the Syrian regime to also flee Palmyra in the desert.
It's hard to understand all these moves without familiarity with all these places. What’s important to think about is that the Syrian regime's strength lies in Damascus and also a line of cities such as Homs and Hama, Aleppo, and the area of Lattakia. The regime also held Deir Ezzor during the ISIS war when it was under siege from 2014-2017. The rapid collapse of the regime in these areas is fascinating because, in many cases, it had held and fought for these areas, such as Dara’a, for years. Now, it has collapsed in just hours in many of these areas.
One has to imagine now that the regime is losing ground in the north from the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) offensive that began around November 27. HTS took Aleppo and then Hama. Now, it may take Homs. The SDF has caught the regime by surprise, taking areas near Deir Ezzor and Albukamal. The formerly reconciled Syrian rebels of the Southern Operations area have retaken Dara’a province six years after they lost it in 2018. The rebels at Tanf have moved toward Palmyra and secured key areas of the desert.
The Druze have taken parts of the Hauran. This represents a series of moves that could encircle Damascus. The factions don’t necessarily all get along. The SDF and HTS are from different ends of the political spectrum, one a left leaning movement rooted in part in the Kurdish parts of northeast Syria, and one a religious movement rooted in Islam and moving from Idlib in northwest Syria. The rebels in the south are all historic rebels who date back to 2011 in varying ways. They are very different than the SDF or HTS. There are also Arab tribal elements and the Druze. The fact that the Assad regime alienated all these groups shows how weak it is.
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