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Up until several days ago, the Syrian regime believed its backers in Moscow and Tehran could keep it safe.
By SETH J. FRANTZMAN NOVEMBER 30, 2024 01:26 Updated: NOVEMBER 30, 2024 01:28
A rebel led by the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham stands in the back of a vehicle in al-Rashideen, Aleppo province, Syria November 29, 2024.
(photo credit: REUTERS/Mahmoud Hasano)
Syria’s regime is on the verge of losing its northern city of Aleppo to Syrian opposition groups led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). The regime could lose this key city because of its weakness and because Iran’s backing has also weakened due to the blows that Iran and its axis of proxies have suffered at the hands of Israel.
This is an important crossroads in the region, as HTS could deal the Bashar al-Assad regime its largest blow in years. Up until several days ago, the regime believed its backers in Moscow and Tehran could keep it safe. It watched as Israel eliminated thousands of Hezbollah fighters, but it assumed this wouldn’t spillover to Damascus.
It's worth looking back several years to understand how important this moment is. The Iranian IRGC Quds Force leader Qasem Soleimani was key to bringing Russia into Syria to support the Syrian regime’s war against its own people during the Syrian civil war back in 2015. That war began in 2011 and increased in 2012. The regime was on the ropes.
Russia had been focused on Ukraine in 2014 when Russia invaded Crimea and some areas in eastern Ukraine, during the first Russian invasion of Ukraine. This was a more limited version of what Russia has done since 2022.
What happened in 2015-2016 in Syria
“Soleimani personally commanded the battle for Aleppo in December 2015, and in the summer before, travelled to Moscow in order to recruit Russia to intervene militarily in the war against the rebels,” former IDF Brigadier-General Udi Dekel wrote at the Institute for National Security Studies in 2020. Indeed, Soleimani was key to helping the regime reconquer Aleppo from the rebels in 2016. Russia and Iran were there as well, with Hezbollah also moving forces to Syria in 2012, mostly via Quasayr in northern Lebanon.
After 2016, the Syrian regime went on to take over more areas from the rebels. The rebels ended up divided, some of them became proxies of Turkey and others moved to Idlib to live under HTS.
HTS has a long backstory, years ago it was linked to Al Qaeda before rebranding itself several times. In 2020, the group made moves to try to ingratiate itself with the West and even tried outreach to the US. Nevertheless, it remains a more extreme faction of the Syrian rebels. It is also the only real independent faction these days with serious forces on the ground, and showed this week what it was capable of, brushing aside Syrian regime forces and conquering dozens of villages, marching into Aleppo. For many observers, this is a reminder of how the weakened Iraqi army fled Mosul in 2014. Now the Syrian regime is fleeing.
Back in 2015-2016, the Syrian regime had thousands of Hezbollah members to help and it had Iran’s backing and Russian warplanes. Now the regime seems powerless - in part because Moscow is focused on Ukraine, and because Israel has smashed Hezbollah and so they cannot send forces via Qusayr to help.
Israel has not only bombed border crossings between Syria and Lebanon to prevent Hezbollah rearming, but thousands of Hezbollah fighters are dead. Hezbollah’s command and control is also eviscerated. This leaves Syria’s regime alone, in a way.
Syria is still divided. Turkey occupies part of northern Syria, and has used the former Syrian rebel groups to fight Kurds, primarily the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) who control eastern Syria. Meanwhile HTS controls Idlib in northern Syria. The Syrian regime controls the major cities in western Syria; Hama, Homs, Damascus. Aleppo is now vulnerable.
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This shows the unintended consequences of Iran’s policy. This and Iran-backed Hamas led to the October 7 attack. Iran then asked Hezbollah to attack Israel that day and Hezbollah began its attacks the day after. Israel had to focus on Hamas during most of the last year. Only in September, Israel shifted focus to fight Hezbollah, which has now lost many fighters and a portion of its arsenal.
Last Wednesday, a ceasefire began, which lets Hezbollah have some breathing space. But it is in no way capable of helping Damascus. Hezbollah’s new leader Naim Qassem is also not Hassan Nasrallah, who was a friend of Soleimani. Now they are both dead.
Other Iranian-backed figures are also dead. Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis was killed alongside Soleimani in a US airstrike in Baghdad in 2020. The major Iranian axis players are now removed from the border. This has weakened the Syrian regime.
History had other plans for the Syrian regime
The Syrian regime thought history was going its way up until a week ago. It had normalized ties with Egypt and several key Gulf states. Iran’s diplomats were making major inroads in the region, including in Egypt and the Gulf. Iran had joined BRICS and was working closely with Russia and was sending them drones. Iran had also prodded militias in Iraq and Yemen to attack Israel, believing it was isolated.
Now, Iran may be on the ropes. Syria’s regime is the jewel in Iran’s crown. Its weakness makes Iran vulnerable. Iran uses Syria to move weapons to Hezbollah, and Israel has vowed not to let Hezbollah rearm.
Iraqi militias, backed by Iran, are also key to Iran’s strategy. They may move to Syria now to help the regime in the Aleppo battle. These militias include Kataib Hezbollah, Asaib Ahl al-Haq, Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba and others. They have influence in the middle Euphrates river valley, which is called the MERV. US forces and the SDF are on the eastern side of the MERV, the latter being the main group that controls eastern Syria and is backed by the US in the fight against ISIS.
The crisis in Aleppo could force the Syrian regime to strip defenses elsewhere in the country. This could help ISIS, or could lead Iraqi militias to move into areas of Syria, which could end up threatening the Golan Heights.
They could also end up threatening US forces in Syria, as they have in the past. This is important and comes as US President-elect Donald Trump is preparing to take office, who had sought to withdraw US forces from Syria in 2018 and 2019.
This means many fronts are in play in the region. What began on October 7 with the Hamas attack and Iran mobilizing militias for a seven front war on Israel, could backfire on them. However, they have still been trying to harm Israel. There were shooting attacks in the West Bank on Friday. Iran has sought to move weapons to the West Bank to help its proxies there. Israel thwarted one Iranian-backed smuggling attempt over the past week.
This means Iran is still trying to set things aflame. However, they must now watch what is happening in Aleppo.
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