Tahrir al-Sham’s Syrian Strategy: A Moderate Mask or Genuine Shift?

Photo Credit: IDF Spokesperson/TPS-IL

Israeli Air Force jets ahead of a strike on targets in Iran in a photo released on Oct. 26, 2024.

The Syrian conflict is reaching a critical juncture as rebel forces, including the Al-Qaeda-affiliated group Tahrir al-Sham, make significant territorial gains and unveil a surprising shift in tactics. Reports indicate that rebel forces have seized parts of the central city of Hama, forcing the Syrian army to retreat to the outskirts. Official sources claimed the withdrawal was to “ensure the safety of residents and avoid casualties.”

The fallout from Israel’s war with Hamas and Hezbollah has triggered a domino effect threatening Syrian President Bashar Assad’s grip on power and Iran’s regional influence.

Hezbollah has been badly weakened by the war, unable to assist Assad’s forces in the face of the HTS offensive. Israel confirmed eliminating 2,500 Hezbollah terrorists and likely killed at least 1,000 more. Casualties include nearly all of the terror group’s top leadership. Israeli forces also seized 25,000 weapons.

Meanwhile, the strategic city of Homs has been declared the next target by rebel groups. While its capture would pave the way to Damascus the spotlight is firmly on Tahrir al-Sham, whose recent actions suggest an attempt to rebrand its image.

Tahrir al-Sham, formerly known as the Nusra Front, is deeply rooted in Al-Qaeda. But despite its extremist origins, the group has surprised observers by implementing measures to appear more moderate. It has called on local Syrian officials to return to their posts, promising to regulate their status and ensure their safety. Furthermore, Tahrir al-Sham also announced plans to establish a transitional municipal authority to manage the city.

In a further bid to win over Aleppo’s residents, the group pledged not to harm religious and cultural sites, including Christian churches and Muslim shrines. Local reports indicate that Tahrir al-Sham is even protecting Shi’ite residents, a stark departure from its historically sectarian stance.

Abu Mahmoud al-Julani, the group’s leader, has hinted at dissolving Tahrir al-Sham to create a new, inclusive hierarchy involving both military and civilian entities. This move appears aimed at distancing the group from its Al-Qaeda origins and reshaping its image as a legitimate socio-political force.

Analysts suggest that these actions are part of a calculated effort to gain acceptance within Syria and the broader region. Tahrir al-Sham has faced widespread criticism for its extremist tactics, and these moves suggest it is trying to position itself to secure long-term influence in a fragmented Syria. Critics argue that Tahrir al-Sham is simply masking long-term ambitions for control.