The Future of the Greater Middle East Region

Photo Credit: Kremlin.ru

L-R: Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Russian President Vladimir Putin at a trilateral summit in Moscow

As we speak, Iran and Russia are vying for influence in the greater Middle East region. In Syria, we see that the Assad regime, backed by Iran and Putin’s government, was toppled by Syrian rebels backed by Turkey. In the past, such advancements by Syria’s rebels would not have been possible, given how much both Iran and Putin were helping the Assad regime to stay in power.

However, Putin these days is not able to help Assad as much as he could have in the past for he is boggled down in the Ukraine and is facing unprecedented international sanctions for waging an act of aggression. Since 2022, Russia has been reallocating resources to the Ukrainian front, significantly weakening its position in other regions. The loss of senior officers, the use of outdated military equipment, and a management crisis in its armed forces have eroded its ability to respond effectively to geopolitical challenges.

This reality has greatly influenced developments in Syria, leading to a situation where Assad had to rely more on Iran rather than Putin for support. However, Iran and its proxies are also not as strong as they used to be. As the former US Ambassador Dennis Ross wrote, “After accepting Hezbollah’s imposition of a limited war for nearly a year, the Israel Defense Forces and Mossad acted decisively to decapitate Hezbollah’s leadership; disrupt its command, control, and communications; destroy 80 percent of its rocket forces; and dismantle its weapons stocks and infrastructure—below- and aboveground—that it had built up along Israel’s borders. Israel also retaliated against Iran after its October 1 ballistic-missile attack on Israel, destroying Iran’s strategic air and missile defense and 90 percent of its ballistic-missile-production capability. In doing so, it reminded us once again of Henry Kissinger’s maxim that you can achieve at the negotiating table only what you have won on the battlefield.”

Indeed, as the ceasefire went into effect, many Lebanese have come to the realization that the war had a devastating effect upon them, which made Hezbollah in a much weaker position to help out Assad in neighboring Syria. While Iran and Shia militias in Iraq still sent help to Assad, the help that they sent was still not enough to face up against the strong backing that the Syrian rebels are getting from Turkey, who is a member of NATO and has one of the strongest militaries in the region.

The strengthening of Turkey in Syria to the detriment of Assad, Iran and its proxies, as well as Russia, is helping to shift the balance of power in the greater Middle East region away from Iran and Putin. For sure, Iran is trying to make up for its losses in Lebanon and Syria by moving into the South Caucasus by forming an alliance with Armenia, who recently developed a hostile position towards Putin’s Russia. Iran, under sanctions since 1979, views the South Caucasus as a vital trade route. In its efforts to overcome isolation, Tehran is striving to strengthen economic ties with regions that can help mitigate the effects of sanctions.

However, its ambitions face resistance from Western countries and Turkey. Indeed, Iran’s influence in the South Caucasus has been greatly challenged by Azerbaijan’s victory in the Second Karabakh War and the subsequent military operation, alongside plans by the Azerbaijanis to develop transport routes to the autonomous Nachshivan Province that directly conflict with Tehran’s interests. Azerbaijan, who is an ally of Turkey, is working to weaken Iran’s influence in the South Caucasus and to strengthen the Turkic influence instead.

This together with recent developments in Syria help to position Turkey to be a regional superpower at the expense of Iran and Putin. Today, the Turkic world led by Turkey, Azerbaijan and other important Turkic states encompasses a vast region. The Organization of Turkic States is positioned along the Middle Corridor, where Azerbaijan, at the intersection of East and West, plays a critical role. Every day, the cargo passing through the Middle Corridor grows and Azerbaijan has established the necessary infrastructure in order to enhance the route’s efficiency. This corridor has transformed Turkey and Azerbaijan into a force to be reckoned with.

As we speak, the greater Middle East is changing before our very own eyes, with Turkic influence on the ascent and Iranian influence declining. Furthermore, in the wake of the weakening of Iran and its allies, Iran can at any moment witness the resurgence of “women, life, freedom” protests, who will seek to topple the mullahs in Tehran once and for all. If this will happen, it will be a game changer that will allow for the establishment of a new greater Middle East, which is not aligned with neither Putin nor the mullah’s.