The Hezbollah threat: Weakened, but not gone

Israel has reduced Hezbollah’s fighting capabilities to such an extent that many don’t understand why it would agree to stop when the terror group has been reduced to a pile of rubble.

By ZINA RAKHAMILOVA DECEMBER 4, 2024 03:01

IDF SOLDIERS and tanks positioned near a road close to the Israel-Lebanon border last week, after the ceasefire was declared. Assessing whether this is a good outcome for Israel is complicated; it cannot be viewed as a permanent arrangement, rather, as a tactical pause, the writer maintains. (photo credit: STOYAN NENOV/REUTERS)

‘Why doesn’t Israel just finish the job?” This is the question everyone has been asking since Israel announced its agreement to a US-brokered ceasefire with Lebanon after 416 days of cross-border fighting.

Israel has reduced Hezbollah’s fighting capabilities to such an extent that many don’t understand why it would agree to stop when the terror group has been reduced to a pile of rubble.

The current agreement serves as a framework for a long-term ceasefire in which the Lebanese army and the government of Lebanon (along with UNIFIL) will be the only armed groups south of the Litani River. This effectively establishes a buffer zone to inhibit Hezbollah and other armed groups from attacking Israel.

Any rational observer knows that Israel cannot trust Hezbollah or any international body to control Hezbollah’s actions. Indeed, Lebanon has been unsuccessful in binding Hezbollah to its will. So, what is the rationale behind this agreement, and why does Israel believe this is the right move for its security?

Israel’s primary goal

The reason is simple: Israel’s primary goal was to neutralize Hezbollah as a strategic threat, which it has largely accomplished. Demanding that Israel “finish the job” by fully eradicating the terror group would require Israel to take over Lebanon – an outcome Israel does not desire.

IDF soldiers operate in southern Lebanon, November 29, 2024. (credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON UNIT)

The most serious threat Israel faced was the possibility of a border breach and mass infiltration by Hezbollah. The terror group had the capability to amass up to 15,000 fighters near the border, ready to breach it in a surprise attack similar to what Hamas did on October 7.

Reports have indicated that Hezbollah planned to overrun northern kibbutzim and kidnap Israeli hostages, which could have resulted in the deaths of tens of thousands of civilians. According to Israel, this threat has been entirely eliminated, and with proper surveillance, Hezbollah will have no opportunity to rebuild this capability.

Israel estimates it has degraded Hezbollah by 80%. Even if accurate, this still means Hezbollah remains three times stronger than Hamas. Hezbollah was believed to possess approximately 100,000 short-range rockets capable of overwhelming northern Israel’s defenses. However, Israel believes most of these rockets – and the personnel trained to operate them – have been neutralized.

Hezbollah’s arsenal also included around 20,000 long-range missiles and drones, the majority of which have reportedly been destroyed. Despite these setbacks, Hezbollah still possesses thousands of drones and tens of thousands of rockets, including precision-guided missiles capable of reaching any location in Israel. This agreement cannot, therefore, be seen as a conclusive end to the terror group’s threat.

Many understand that even if Israel were to take control of Lebanon to eradicate Hezbollah – which would also require destroying their bases in northern Lebanon – it would not address the real problem: Hezbollah’s financiers in Tehran. Hezbollah’s primary raison d’être is to serve as a deterrent for the Islamic Republic of Iran.

---

---

Even now, the Israel Defense Forces report that Hezbollah is attempting to smuggle weapons into Lebanon via civilian border crossings with Syria. Several Israeli strikes in Lebanon have targeted threats that violated the ceasefire agreement.

As many know, about 60,000 Israelis from northern communities have been evacuated for over 420 days, living as refugees in their own country. Many have lost businesses and livelihoods. Some communities have been heavily damaged by Hezbollah rocket fire, and large cities like Kiryat Shmona have been reduced to desolate ghost towns.

One of Israel’s key war aims in the North was to safely return residents to their homes without the constant fear of rocket bombardments, which have killed so many in these communities.

Whether this ceasefire accomplishes that aim remains a significant question. It will take time for northern residents to regain trust in the government and the army’s ability to keep them safe.

Assessing whether this ceasefire deal is a good outcome for Israel is complicated. As it stands, it cannot be viewed as a permanent arrangement but rather as a tactical pause in a long and ongoing struggle.

Israel’s decision to agree to the ceasefire with Hezbollah is rooted in a complex balance of pragmatism and necessity. While it has successfully neutralized significant elements of Hezbollah’s infrastructure and strategic capabilities, the underlying threats remain unresolved.

Ultimately, the question isn’t just whether Israel should “finish the job” with Hezbollah but whether the international community will finally recognize the danger posed by Iran’s proxies and take meaningful steps to address the violence and threat that the Islamic Republic poses. Israel cannot – and should not – carry this burden alone.

The writer is the co-founder and CEO of Social Lite Creative, a digital marketing firm that specializes in geopolitics.