The prospects for a friendly US administration

One thing is certain: Democracy in Israel and the US is about to cross rough waters – the handiwork of Netanyahu and Trump, respectively.

By SUSAN HATTIS ROLEF NOVEMBER 18, 2024 00:53

US PRESIDENT-ELECT Donald Trump meets with House Republicans on Capitol Hill in Washington, last week. It is difficult to tell how Trump will react if Israel will fail to end the current war on its various fronts by the time he enters office, says the writer. (photo credit: BRIAN SNYDER/REUTERS)

When US President-elect Donald Trump started selecting his candidates for government office last week, many in Israel were waiting to see whether the final team appointed would be friendly toward us.

At first, when it was announced that former US Ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley and former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who had been prominent members of Trump’s first administration, were not to be offered positions in his new administration, there was some concern in Israel that this was due to their markedly pro-Israel positions.

However, it transpired that the problem had to do with acts of alleged personal disloyalty toward Trump and not their being pro-Israel. In other words, the name of the game is, first and foremost – loyalty.

As the list of Trump’s selected nominees was revealed, it has become apparent that the original concerns were unfounded. There is no lack of pro-Israel personalities on the list – including several Evangelicals, one of them being Mike Huckabee, who was nominated as ambassador to Israel. He is on record as saying that he does not accept the terms “occupation,” “settlements,” and “West Bank” in referring to the Jewish return to the land promised them by God, and Jewish cities, towns, and neighborhoods established in Judea and Samaria.

At any rate, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich was sufficiently encouraged by these recent developments to announce that 2025 would be the year of declaring Israeli sovereignty over the Jewish settlements in Judea and Samaria, while those advocating immediate Jewish settlement in the Gaza Strip are declaring that a miracle has taken place. Whether the hopes of the settlers will be realized with the blessing of the new American administration is yet to be seen.

US secretary of defense nominee Pete Hegseth (credit: AP Photo/Evan Vucci, File)

Pete Hegseth

Another potential appointment that delights the Israeli Right is that of Pete Hegseth as defense secretary. Hegseth is a Fox News commentator and National Guard veteran who has expressed disdain for so-called “woke” policies of Pentagon leaders. If nominated, Hegseth is expected to realize Trump’s campaign promises to rid the US military of generals whom he accuses of pursuing progressive policies on a variety of issues. Hegseth is also known to support removing women from combat roles.

The Right in Israel supports Hegseth because, in general, he favors a much more active international military role for the US, is pro-Israel as an Evangelical, and holds a hawkish position vis-à-vis Iran.

Nevertheless, Hegseth is one of several Trump picks who might fail to get their nomination confirmed by the Senate. In Hegseth’s case, the problem is his total lack of any top military experience or general managerial experience. There are also question marks over his personal conduct, including a past investigation related to sexual abuse.

LAST WEDNESDAY, during a Knesset debate over two motions for the agenda laid on the Knesset table by coalition MKs, Communications Minister Shlomo Karhi used the opportunity to attack Israel’s allegedly elitist legal advisers and judges, while at the same time praising the special camaraderie being created between the Israeli Right and the new administration being formed across the Atlantic.

After informing the progressive Left that “your time is over” and praising the appointments Trump was making as “democracy at its best,” he expressed his belief that “together we shall be able to do important and good things for the State of Israel and for the Jewish people.” Karhi was expressing a feeling that is current within the Israeli Right.

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However, before anyone starts rejoicing about any particular appointment to Trump’s new administration, it should be noted that no matter how loyal each of Trump’s appointees will prove to be, the new president himself will take all major policy decisions. Support of Israel will not necessarily mean automatic support for all of Israel’s (or rather, Benjamin Netanyahu’s) policy choices.

Thus, it is difficult to tell how Trump will react if Israel will fail to end the current war on its various fronts by the time he enters office, as he has demanded on several occasions. This is not a marginal issue. Undoubtedly, Netanyahu, with the support of Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer, will do everything to convince Trump to change his mind on this. Whether they will succeed is yet to be seen.

Since the Israeli opposition, or at least most of it, is calling for an end to the war, accompanied by the immediate return of the hostages from the Gaza Strip, it will be delighted if Trump will insist on getting his way on this issue. The families of the hostages are in concurrence on this.

Another reality regarding Trump is that he supports a policy of reducing federal spending by billions (possibly trillions) of dollars, and this includes cutting, or even eliminating, generous financial handouts to allies in need. Whether this will include Israel is yet to be seen.

One of the reasons Trump is bringing the richest man on earth, Elon Musk, into his entourage (though not into the administration, because that would involve numerous conflicts of interest) is precisely for this purpose. A Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) is being formed, in which Musk and Indian-American entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy have been appointed to present proposals for effectively bring about the desired cuts in accordance with Trump’s values and priorities.

Since, in the course of the last year, Netanyahu has developed something of a personal relationship with Musk, starting with a visit by the Netanyahus to Musk’s Tesla electric car plant in California in September 2023, this might be a convenient venue to be considered.

In the next four years, if Netanyahu remains prime minister, he will have to learn to play a new game in which someone else calls the shots. Trump will not only refuse to accept Netanyahu “bullshitting” him (to repeat a term used by President Joe Biden about Bibi), but he will also not be as patient as Biden has been.

Since neither Trump nor Netanyahu ever admitted that they were wrong, and both are masters of creating fake news and untruths as a regular strategy, it will be interesting to watch how our prime minister will fare. Whether the new Trump administration will help Israel pull out of the social, economic, and political mess it has gotten itself into will very much depend on whether Netanyahu still “has it.”

One thing is certain: Democracy in Israel and the US is about to cross rough waters – the handiwork of Netanyahu and Trump, respectively.

The writer worked in the Knesset for many years as a researcher and has published extensively both journalistic and academic articles on current affairs and Israeli politics. Her most recent book, Israel’s Knesset Members – A Comparative Study of an Undefined Job, was published by Routledge.