UAE murder is a warning for Jews across the world

The murder of Rabbi Zvi Kogan in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) by three Uzbek nationals should serve as a warning shot for Jewish communities around the world. Iran has been seeking to settle accounts with Israel after a series of losses in its proxy network and its own air defence system on Iranian soil. A heightened terror campaign against soft targets in the Jewish world is a very real threat.

Iran has attempted multiple operations against Israeli and Jewish targets not only in the Middle East but also beyond. There has been an uptick in such plots, from Europe to South America and from Africa to Asia. Iran has even sought to kill current and former Israeli officials. But its lack of success in such campaigns against protected individuals in Israel’s defence and security establishment has likely increased the pressure from decision-makers in Tehran for lower-level operatives to aim for softer targets like Rabbi Kogan, who was a Chabad emissary in the UAE.

Iran has an extensive apparatus for extra-territorial operations. It operates predominantly through two main nodes: the Ministry of Intelligence and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). The Ministry of Intelligence has a history of operations in the UAE. For example, in 2020 its agents kidnapped Iranian dissident Jamshid Sharmahd from Dubai and renditioned him back to Iran where he was later tried and executed. In 2013, British-Iranian businessman Abbas Yazdi also vanished from Dubai.

The Iranian Intelligence Ministry has employed the Zindashti drug cartel led by Naji Ibrahim Sharifi-Zindashti, which has been involved in murders in the UAE. The US Treasury Department has sanctioned the group under counterterrorism authorities. In return for protection by the Iranian regime, given that the cartel is wanted worldwide for its criminal activities, Zindashti carries out terror campaigns on behalf of the leadership in Iran. With reports that the perpetrators of Rabbi Kogan’s murder fled to Turkey and their arrests taking place in an unnamed third country, it is worth probing the potential complicity of the Zindashti network as it has had significant connections in Turkey as well.

Tehran has also provided Al-Qaeda with refuge on Iranian soil, including Uzbek nationals. For example, the US government sanctioned an Iran-based Islamic Jihad Union facilitator, Olimzhon Adkhamovich Sadikov (also known as Jafar al-Uzbeki), an Uzbek national, in 2014, who is part of this facilitation pipeline. Such connections should come under the investigatory microscope.

The IRGC leads parallel efforts, through its Quds Force and Intelligence Organisation. Recent reporting suggests Kataib Hezbollah, an IRGC proxy which has an IRGC representative on its Shura Council, has been active in targeting Jewish centres in Uzbekistan. The Uzbek nationalities of those involved in the killing of Rabbi Kogan thus raise red flags given this history of IRGC and Kataib Hezbollah presence in Uzbekistan and the Iranian state’s acquaintance with Uzbek terrorists.

Iran maintains connections with many other criminal gangs like the Mocro Mafia, which it has used to harm its opponents in the past. The Emirati authorities arrested Redouane Taghi, its leader, in Dubai in 2019. The head of Hezbollah’s External Security Organization Talal Hamiyah remains at large and it too may attempt to avenge its losses in Lebanon by striking at Israeli interests abroad.

A plot by ISIS, which has presence in Central Asia, should also not be ruled out in Rabbi Kogan’s case given the arrests of three Uzbek nationals.

These structures provide the Iranians with plausible deniability as a mask for its operations. Tehran may opt to double down on such tools in retaliation for Israeli strikes as it remains exposed to military action with its air defences being degraded and its broader proxy network weakened, especially Hezbollah. With Iranian decision-makers perceiving Israel as being more risk-ready, the outgoing Biden administration retaining little leverage to restrain it, and the incoming Trump administration being unpredictable, choosing terror campaigns is a safer way for Iran to attempt to re-establish deterrence than direct military strikes on Israel again.

However, in the end, the US, the UK and their regional allies and partners cannot allow Iranian attacks against Jews abroad to become normalised. Handling these cases solely as law enforcement matters will ensure the Iranian leadership continues to calculate that the benefits of such terror outweighs the costs, which are absorbable. This is because mere criminal penalties against three Uzbek nationals do not touch the Iranian leadership. Economic sanctions, diplomatic isolation, and military force are necessary to change the Iranian risk calculus.

The UAE retains leverage over the Iranians as they value their economic access to Dubai and other cities. Washington and London should work closely with the UAE to ensure that Tehran is not allowed to use Emirati territory as a launchpad for terrorism. The Iranian ambassador to the UAE Reza Amiri has held previous assignments in sensitive locations like Algeria and Sudan, where IRGC Quds Force equities have loomed large. Tehran often embeds IRGC officers in regional ambassadorships, and such presence poses risks for Emirati, American, European, and Israeli interests. Rabbi Kogan’s murder was not only an attack on the State of Israel and the Jewish people, but also the UAE and the spirit of the Abraham Accords. A decisive response is necessary.

Jason M. Brodsky is the policy director of United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI). He is also a non-resident scholar at the Middle East Institute’s Iran Program, where is research focuses on Iranian leadership dynamics, Iran’s military and security services, and Iran’s relationship with Israel.