What do the Houthis hope to achieve as they lash out on Israel?

The Houthis are lashing out. They are willing to confront the US, Israel, and perhaps Saudi Arabia and other states.

By SETH J. FRANTZMAN DECEMBER 25, 2024 20:27 Updated: DECEMBER 25, 2024 20:43

Security forces loyal to Yemen's Huthi movement march in the Huthi-run capital Sanaa in support of the Palestinians and against the US and Israel, on December 18, 2024. (photo credit: MOHAMMED HUWAIS/AFP via Getty Images)

The Iranian-backed Houthis upped their attacks on Israel this past month, having carried out four ballistic missile attacks over 10 days. The attacks now appear to be increasing to a point where they happen nightly, forcing millions into shelters. Leaders and officials have vowed to strike back, but Israel has so far carried out only three rounds of strikes.

What do the Houthis hope to accomplish?

On the one hand, one could argue that these attacks are more a nuisance than a major threat. Launching one ballistic missile per day or week terrorized civilians by sending them to shelters – but is not a war-winner.

Recalling the past 

However, the trauma of Israel feeling unprotected during the Gulf War when Saddam Hussein launched Scud missiles led to Israel’s current expertise in air defense: Israel cooperated with the US to develop the Arrow and David’s Sling systems, and later built the Iron Dome.

The Houthis know that their missiles will likely be intercepted, but may think that they can try to get some of the attacks through Israel’s air defenses. They have made claims about using “hypersonic” missiles in the past. Technically, a missile that is “hypersonic” is simply traveling more than five times the speed of sound.

However, for ballistic missiles, this is not a new achievement because in their terminal phase – when they plummet toward the target, they may reach very high speeds. However, “hypersonic” weapons are mostly hyped in terms of maneuverability, meaning the warhead can maneuver at the end of its flight, which makes it hard to intercept because it does not follow a simple, predictable flight path.

Graphic of Sirens sounding across central and southern Israel following a projectile launched from Yemen (credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON'S UNIT)

It is possible the Houthis are seeking to use new technology, likely with guidance and advice from Iran. As such, they serve as a testing ground for Tehran. The Houthis have played this role in the past by using drones and missiles during the civil war in Yemen, and to attack Saudi Arabia. For instance, the Shahed 136, which Iran exported to Russia, was likely first exported to Yemen.

Therefore, the increased Houthi attacks are an attempt to take advantage of the focus shifting from Lebanon to other fronts, in order to try out new threats.

So, why didn’t they do this six months ago? Why now? The attacks come after Hezbollah ceased its fire due to the November ceasefire, and also while Hamas’s rocket launch capabilities have been weakened; the Iranian-backed militias in Iraq appear to be pausing their attacks on Israel as well.

This leaves the Houthis as the proverbial “last man standing,” clearly trying to provoke and show that they can shoulder the burden.

---

---

The first and main goal of the Houthis is to test their missiles. The second is for their Iranian backers, to test the missiles against Israel – because Iran doesn’t want to directly attack Israel, at least not right now. Third, the Houthis want to show that they can take over for Hezbollah as the new senior partner in the Iranian axis. And fourth, the Houthis likely want to provoke a response from Israel, which may help them gain popularity at home.

So, the Houthis are bragging and threatening, having dispatched a series of warnings to the US and Saudi Arabia in recent days. “A member of the political bureau of Yemen’s Ansarullah movement has said that there will be no red line for Yemenis or the resistance group in targeting American interests in the region if the US invades the Arab country,” Iran’s state media reported yesterday.

The Houthis also claimed that they foiled a US and “Zionist” plot – they are lashing out, saying that they are willing to confront the US, Israel, and perhaps Saudi Arabia as well. They feel a sense of arrogance after a year and two months of attacks on Israel and international shipping routes, hoping to position themselves as a regional leader in years to come.

It is not clear if any country will agree to accept this, but being able to blockade shipping in one of the world’s key shipping lanes gives them leverage and clout.