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The big question now is whether the PKK will actually heed this call by Ocalan and if PKK affiliates will agree.
By SETH J. FRANTZMAN MARCH 1, 2025 19:03
A demonstrator holds a picture of jailed Kurdish militant leader Abdullah Ocalan during a rally in Diyarbakir, Turkey, February 27, 2025.
(photo credit: REUTERS/SERTAC KAYAR)
The jailed leader of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) Abdullah Ocalan called on Thursday for members of his group to disarm. This comes as a statement he released also called for a ceasefire with Turkey and points the way for the PKK to be dissolved.
This could have an impact on the region. The PKK has been active not only in Turkey but also in affiliated groups, and its members exist in Syria, Iraq, and Iran.
The war between Turkey and the PKK has had a major impact on Turkey and the region. Ankara has established bases in northern Iraq for decades, claiming to be fighting the PKK there. This has harmed Kurds who live in northern Iraq, and also poses a challenge for the Kurdistan autonomous region of Iraq.
In Syria, Turkey invaded the Kurdish area of Afrin in 2018, claiming to be fighting the PKK. Ankara also accuses the US-backed SDF in Syria of being part of the PKK. This poses a challenge for the US anti-ISIS effort and leads to Ankara bombing many areas in eastern Syria.
Turkey has also operated in other countries, seeking to go after what it claims are PKK members. This has led to incidents in France and other countries. Ankara claims it is involved in a global war on terror against an organization that it believes is an existential threat.
This came to a head in 2015 when a ceasefire between the PKK broke down into fighting across eastern Turkey, which has harmed many people’s lives. Turkey usually claims that up to 40,000 people have been killed in the war with the PKK. Many of the lives affected are Kurdish, which has cast a long shadow over politics in Turkey. Ankara often accuses local politicians of terror ties by asserting they are linked to parties that have links to the PKK.
Ending this conflict could change many things in Turkey. It could help Kurdish communities and lead to parties that Ankara accused of being linked to the PKK being able to have candidates who are constantly being arrested.
The big question now is whether the PKK will actually heed this call by Ocalan or demand more proof of it. It also remains to be seen if the PKK affiliates will agree. Another issue is whether Ankara takes this initiative to respond with peace overtures or if it ramps up its military campaign.
Impact on Syria
Another major question relates to Syria. The SDF is saying that this call is not linked to them. Ankara could accuse the SDF of being a new threat and then increase its attacks, or Ankara could decide to bifurcate things and finally realize the SDF is not a “terrorist” group as it terms it. This could lead to a deal in Syria and lead the SDF to do a deal with the new government in Damascus. It could also lead the Trump administration to change tactics in Syria. A lot of things are up in the air. Israel’s foreign minister, Gideon Sa'ar, has often backed the Kurds in Syria, and this could also be an opening to do more.
On another note, this could lead to change in northern Iraq and also areas such as Sinjar, where the Yazidi minority live. Ankara has carried out attacks in this area in the past, claiming Yazidi groups are linked to the PKK.
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The change in policy may also affect Qandil, the area in northern Iraq where the PKK has been active. It could also affect groups such as PJAK in Iran, a Kurdish group called the Free Life Party that is considered to be close to the PKK.
Much could change in the region if people seize the baton. But much could remain the same.
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