What happens now? How the fall of Assad's regime can shake the Middle East

The IDF and the intelligence community are preparing for a variety of scenarios along the Syrian border and beyond.

By AMIR BOHBOT DECEMBER 8, 2024 08:49 Updated: DECEMBER 8, 2024 08:53

An illustrative image of King Abdullah II of Jordan, Saudi Arabia's crown prince Mohammed bin Salman and Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. (photo credit: SCREENSHOT/X/REUTERS/AMR ALFIKY/BANDAR ALGALOUD/WANA )

With the fall of former president Bashar al-Assad's regime on Sunday, it appears that the era of a clear single authority over most of Syria is nearing its end, and Israel will need to identify new areas of cooperation.

The Syrian rebels consist of a collection of groups and organizations that do not necessarily share the same vision of reality—except for their unity against the Assad regime, their common enemy. 

Therefore, Israel's intelligence community will need to monitor developments and, in conjunction with diplomatic efforts, attempt to secure the area near the border by engaging with those in control to achieve basic agreements on stability.

The IDF and the intelligence community are preparing for a variety of scenarios along the Syrian border and beyond. These range from rebel activity near the fence to attempts by rebels to seize stockpiles of unconventional weapons held by the Syrian army. 

Additionally, preparations are underway to counter attempts by Iran and Hezbollah to obtain strategic weapons such as P-800 Oniks, ballistic missiles, helicopters, aircraft, and massive arms stockpiles.

Israeli soldiers seen near the Israeli border with Syria, northern Israel, December 7, 2024 (credit: AYAL MARGOLIN/FLASH90)

Iran 

Iran is watching its most valuable asset. There is no doubt that the regime is reassessing the investment and asking itself whether it is still possible to salvage its assets in Syria and, subsequently, Bashar al-Assad.

Ultimately, the Iranians understand that what remains for them after the severe blows dealt by the IDF to Hezbollah and the collapse of Assad's regime is the nuclear program.

Therefore, they will soon face a significant dilemma: whether to push forward with the nuclear project as a means of protection or to pursue an agreement with US President-elect Donald Trump to gain four years of quiet and immunity from an Israeli attack. 

At this stage, the Israeli government would prefer halting Iran's nuclear project, which is progressing in a concerning manner.

Hezbollah 

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Hezbollah is recalculating its path after the war with the IDF and is currently trying to salvage weapons stockpiles in southern Lebanon. 

Its logistical backbone, Syria, is collapsing before its eyes, leaving it unable to offer significant support.

The question now arises: will Hezbollah become Assad’s sponsor in Lebanon, thereby also becoming a target for the rebels? 

It remains unclear whether the rebels will decide to march on Beirut and whether Hezbollah, given its current state, will have the capacity to stop them. 

Hezbollah's ability to fight the IDF will decline significantly, and the organization will primarily focus on understanding the events unfolding in Syria and how they affect it.

Jordan

King Abdullah II of Jordan is constantly reading reports in the foreign media, receiving intelligence from his operatives, and understands that at any moment, the rebels could push into Jordan.

The collapse of Assad's regime will prompt Abdullah to keep a close eye on his own country, as there are numerous internal forces that might exploit the region's tense situation to attempt to alter Jordan's political reality.

Israel also has reason to be concerned about Jordan's security, given that it shares its longest and relatively most stable border with the kingdom. A significant security shift along the Jordanian border could impact the allocation of IDF forces across different sectors.

Saudi Arabia 

The collapse of the regime in Syria could be a turning point for the moderate Sunni axis led by Saudi Arabia. 

At this stage, Saudi Arabia is not truly in a position to take a stand or influence the dismantling of the "axis of evil."

The rebels may gain momentum and extend their ambitions beyond Syria, potentially affecting the entire Middle East. 

United StatesThe US military maintains a significant concentration of troops at Al-Tanf, the tri-border area of Jordan, Syria, and Iraq. 

The last thing the Americans want is to see their soldiers fighting rebels. Even before the fall of Assad's regime, senior American officials had proposed withdrawing the forces back to the US due to the risks posed by the current situation.However, such a withdrawal would be perceived as a sign of weakness and would further expose Jordan to attacks. At this stage, US policy towards Syria and the region remains unclear, as the White House is currently hesitant.