Why are the Houthis attacking and can they be deterred?

The Houthis may think they can get away with anything without paying a price. The question is, what price is enough to make them stop?

By SETH J. FRANTZMAN DECEMBER 17, 2024 15:28 Updated: DECEMBER 17, 2024 15:29

A banner depicting U.S. and Israeli flags is burned, as protesters, mainly Houthi supporters, rally to show support to Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, in Sanaa, Yemen December 13, 2024. (photo credit: REUTERS/KHALED ABDULLAH)

The Houthis fired a ballistic missile at Israel on Monday, the latest in their continued attempts to attack Israel. They have used missiles and drones in attacks over the last months.

The Iranian-backed Houthis do not appear to want to back down. On the opposite, they have kept up their attacks even as other Iranian proxies have received a drubbing from Israel.

Why are the Houthis still attacking? The group appears to believe that it is far enough away from Israel that it would be hard for Israel to do to Yemen what was done to Hezbollah in Lebanon. For instance, Israel relies on precision airstrikes combined with ground operations in most cases.

Israel can’t move ground forces to Yemen. Thus, the Houthis think they are safe in the mountains around Sana’a. They have used the same policy in their war on Saudi Arabia after Riyadh intervened in Yemen in 2015. Eventually, the war stopped, and the Houthis became stronger, fighting Saudi Arabia. They fired many missiles at Riyadh and other areas during the war.

Former Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein speaks during his trial in Baghdad (credit: REUTERS)

Over the years, the Houthis have learned that they can get away with these long-range attacks. However, stopping them is also difficult. Without advanced warning, one cannot preempt a missile launch. Missiles can be prepared underground, then wheeled out on a truck and positioned for launch. The difficulty of stopping these types of long-range missiles was discovered decades ago during the 1991 Gulf War.

Saddam Hussein’s regime fired Scud missiles at Tel Aviv. The US-led coalition that was at war with Saddam attempted to find the Scud launchers. This became known as the “great Scud hunt” but was largely unsuccessful. Saddam’s Scuds were mostly located in a desert, primarily in western Iraq’s Anbar province. Yet, it was hard to find them. The Houthis have progressed in missile technology since then, backed by Iran.

Houthi attacks on Israel

On December 16, the Houthi attack affected an area of some 2 million people in and around Tel Aviv. Later, US Central Command said it carried out a “precision airstrike against a key command and control facility operated by Iran-backed Houthis within Houthi-controlled territory in Sana’a, Yemen. The targeted facility was a hub for coordinating Houthi operations, such as attacks against US Navy warships and merchant vessels in the Southern Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.”

 The US airstrike is important. However, precision airstrikes are not likely to deter the Houthis. The Houthis have resources underground, and they are willing to wait it out. The question then becomes whether a new tactic might work.

Can the Houthis be stopped by targeting their leadership the way the Hezbollah leadership was eviscerated in airstrikes? This might have an effect. It doesn’t seem the Saudis or others tried this in the past.

The Houthis have become incredibly arrogant. They may think they can get away with anything and not pay a price. The question is, what price is enough to make them stop?