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Despite global backlash, Hamas has faced few impacts since October 7, instead gaining support in some regions.
By SETH J. FRANTZMAN DECEMBER 2, 2024 16:05 Updated: DECEMBER 2, 2024 16:50
DEMONSTRATORS demand the immediate release of the hostages held in Gaza, during a visit by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, in Tel Aviv last month. Despite US mediation efforts and Israel’s offers, Hamas plays by its own rules, the writer maintains.
(photo credit: Florion Goga/Reuters)
Today Israeli authorities said they have concluded that Capt. Omer Neutra, 21, died on October 7 of last year, and his body was taken by Hamas to Gaza.
Ronen and Orna Neutra, his parents, spoke at the Republican National Convention in mid-July. This didn’t change Hamas’ decision to keep holding the body of their son. In fact, Hamas could have saved them the worry and agony of a year of waiting for information by releasing the body back in October 2023. Hamas felt no incentive to do so because it assumed it could kill as many Americans and Israelis as it wanted and get away with it.
Hamas also murdered Hersh Goldberg-Polin, whose parents spoke at the Democratic National Convention in August. Hamas would have seen the speech and concluded it could kill him anyway and face no consequences. Why did Hamas assume this? Because Hamas had already carried out the October 7 attack, and its leaders were living in Doha in Qatar at the time.
Qatar is a major non-NATO ally of the US. Hamas leaders didn’t face any consequences on October 7 in Qatar or any of the days after. They felt they had a blank check to massacre and murder as many people as they wanted. They murdered young people at the Nova festival and saw how activists in the US and the West rushed to back Hamas and call for more “flood” operations. Activists on campuses painted posters showing Hamas members using paragliders to attack civilians. Activists attacked a Nova festival documentary in New York City. Activists tore down photos of the hostages.
Hamas doesn’t feel it faces any pressure from the Biden administration and doesn’t appear to be worried things will change with the incoming Trump administration. It assumes it can kill and kidnap Americans, and nothing will happen. This is because of Hamas's support from US allies in Doha and Ankara. It’s rare that a group that kills Americans is also hosted by American allies. Hamas is one of the historic exceptions to that rule. Hamas knows this and feels complete security in continuing its behavior.
Hamas potentially has more support abroad
This is not to say Hamas has not suffered losses. Israel has killed thousands of Hamas members and eliminated numerous Hamas leaders. However, Hamas has also faced losses in the past during the Second Intifada. Losing leaders is not new for the group. It assumes that it can hold on for another year or two and that Israel will eventually leave Gaza.
Hamas doesn’t appear to believe that holding live hostages makes much impact. It is willing to let them die or hold corpses. Hamas may now believe that Israel will do a deal similar to the ceasefire in Lebanon. Hezbollah didn’t hold any hostages and got a deal after two months. Hamas may assume that holding the hostages alive actually prolongs the war and that without live hostages in Gaza, Israel will withdraw faster.
Hamas has learned through the October 7 attack that murdering and killing citizens of numerous countries hasn’t had any real negative effect on Hamas. It isn’t more isolated today than on October 6, 2023. In fact, it has the same support abroad, probably more support, than on that day.
Hamas knows it has more support on campuses in the US today than two years ago. It has more support in the global south as well. Its willingness to kill so many people has appeared to make it get more respect from Russia and China. This means Hamas does not assess today that it has lost out due to the attack. It hasn’t been replaced as a governing authority in Gaza. It still controls parts of Gaza city and the central camps area in Gaza. This includes Deir al-Balah, Bureij, Maghazi and Nuseirat. Hamas assumes that the IDF is exhausted from more than a year of war and that Israel wants to let reservists go home after the battles in Lebanon.
There remain key questions about the new information about the death of Capt. Omer Neutra. He was a member of a tank crew on the border of Gaza on October 7. Why didn’t the US ask Doha if he was alive after the attack? Why wasn’t more done to confirm the details and status regarding the Americans held in Gaza? The fact that Hamas seems to have faced no queries from Doha about the status of Americans held in Gaza is concerning. This is a reminder of several incidents over the past year that also raise questions.
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On October 20, 2023, Hamas released two American women who it had held hostage for two weeks. Nothing more was heard about this story, such as why it happened, how, and when it did. Clearly, Hamas had decided to release two Americans. Why not the others? Why not more discussions about their status at the time?
Days later, Hamas released two elderly women as well. Nothing more was ever revealed about these two hostage releases in October. This begs the question of why the Bibas children were not released at that time. They were the most vulnerable of the hostages because one was a baby and one a toddler. There are a lot of questions now about why more wasn’t done to pressure Hamas for basic details on the hostages.
In January, reports said that Qatar and France had brokered a deal to deliver medical aid to 45 hostages in Gaza. Nothing was done to confirm if the aid reached the hostages. Why? Why is it that systematically since October 7 there has been a kind of collective shrug about basic details about the hostages, details that would have helped families who have been waiting for information? No pressure from the US, no pressure from Doha, and it’s not clear if there is pressure from Israel.
Since the decision to shift focus from Gaza to fighting Hezbollah, Hamas has felt free rein to run central Gaza and continue its rule. The news that Neutra was killed on October 7 leads to questions about why Hamas continues to feel it faces no repercussions for its actions.
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