Will Iranian-backed militias in Iraq march to Syria? Orders awaited

Moving Iraqi militias into Syria would be Iran’s way of both preventing spillover and adding fuel to the fire.

By SETH J. FRANTZMAN DECEMBER 3, 2024 15:34

A member of Iraq's Kataib Hezbollah attends the funeral of a commander who was killed in a strike in the Syrian capital Damascus on Friday, September 22, 2024. (photo credit: THAIER AL-SUDANI/REUTERS)

One of the most important of the Iranian-backed militias in Iraq is awaiting orders to go to Syria to help the Syrian regime fight rebel groups. This has potential implications for Israel because the Iranian-backed militias have been attacking Israel with drones over the past year. These groups have operated in Syria in the past, and they pose a clear and present danger to Israel.

According to Iranian state media, the Kataib Hezbollah brigade “has said that the group has not yet decided to deploy its fighters to Syria to fight terrorists in the country.” Kataib Hezbollah is not only one of the most disciplined of the Iranian-backed militias, it is also historically closest to the IRGC Quds Force. Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, the leader of Kataib Hezbollah, was killed in 2020 while riding in the same vehicle as Qasem Soleimani, the head of the Iranian IRGC Quds Force.

 Abu Mahdi worked closely with Soleimani to coordinate operations in Iraq. In addition, Kataib Hezbollah maintained a headquarters in Albukamal in Syria on the Iraqi border. The building that Kataib Hezbollah used in Albukamal was hit with an airstrike in June 2018. The Iraqi militias blamed the US and Israel for the attack.

The attack on the KH building in Albukamal convinced the Iranians to move operations to a base called Imam Ali nearby in the desert. We can see from this background how KH is the key to Iran’s involvement in Iraq and Syria and has been a conduit for Iranian influence.

Kataib Hezbollah Iraqi militia hold the picture of the Iranian Maj.-Gen. Qassem Soleimani, as they gather ahead of the funeral of the Iraqi militia commander Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis (credit: REUTERS/THAIER AL-SUDANI)

Threatening Israel

Kataib Hezbollah has previously not only threatened Israel and worked closely with Hezbollah in Lebanon, it has also threatened Saudi Arabia with drones. The group is a serious threat. “We believe the Iraqi government should take the initiative to send regular military forces in coordination with the Syrian government, as these groups pose a threat to Iraq’s national security and the region,” Kataib Hezbollah’s Abu Ali al-Asgari told Arab News on Tuesday, Iranian media reported. Asgari is usually described as the head of KH's security bureau.

Iranian media also reported that “the head of the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces' (PMF) media directorate, Muhannad al-Aqabi, also said on Tuesday that the armed groups operating in Syria are pursuing foreign interests that seek to create instability in the region.” Iran has accused Israel of being behind attacks on the Syrian regime forces by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the group in Idlib that recently took control of Aleppo. Iran may want to use Iraqi militias to bolster the Syrian regime. Iran says it is worried that the current escalation in Syria could spill over to the region.Moving Iraqi militias into Syria would be Iran’s way of both preventing spillover and adding fuel to the fire. Any significant movement would be a threat to Israel and also a threat to US forces in eastern Syria. Iran is watching developments near Deir Ezzor and along the Euphrates River. Reports say the US-backed SDF recently took control of several villages in this area that the regime had occupied. This could also lead to the deployment of Iranian-backed militias in the Deir Ezzor sector.