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Videos from Syria shows the group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham inside a Syrian regime base of the 46th Regiment.
By SETH J. FRANTZMAN NOVEMBER 28, 2024 16:18 Updated: NOVEMBER 28, 2024 16:19
Hezbollah and Syrian flags flutter on a military vehicle in Western Qalamoun, Syria August 28, 2017.
(photo credit: REUTERS/OMAR SANADIKI)
A surprise advance by Syrian rebel groups has caught the Syrian regime by surprise. The regime, backed by Iran and Russia, has lost ground near Aleppo. This is the largest setback for the regime and its Iranian backers in many years.
Videos from Syria shows the group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham inside a Syrian regime base of the 46th Regiment.
According to other reports from Syria an Iranian IRGC officer was also killed during the rebel advance. The attacks by the rebel groups show the groups are attempting to restart fighting with the regime.
This comes after days of strikes by the regime against areas in Idlib in northern Syria. This area is controlled by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, which is one of the more extreme of the rebel groups. HTS controls Idlib while neighboring areas are occupied by Turkey and Turkish-backed Syrian rebel groups.
In the last several years, Turkey has sought to take control of many of the former Syrian rebel groups and use them to control areas Turkey took over in northern Syria.
Turkey’s control of the rebel groups has clipped their wings and turned them into a tool of Ankara’s policy. Ankara wants reconciliation with Iran, Russia and the Syrian regime. This leaves primarily only HTS and affiliated groups as capable of conducting independent operations.
The surprise attack on the Syrian regime comes after the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah on Wednesday. It appears that the Iranian axis in the region was focused on southern Lebanon, and the Syrian regime did not expect an attack from Idlib.
Response or anticipation to larger attack
HTS has said that the attack was actually designed to deter regime aggression. This means it is either a response to recent attacks on Idlib or an attempt to pre-empt a broader attack that was suspected. It is possible that the Iranian-backed Syrian regime would have wanted to see if it could get a “win” in Idlib after watching Hezbollah take a beating at the hands of Israel.
The Syrian regime lacks troops and is exhausted from a decade of civil war. Russia, which backs the regime, has been focused on fighting Ukraine. Iran is focused on Israel. Hezbollah has lost thousands of fighters in the war on Israel.
As such, Hezbollah cannot send men to fight on the Aleppo front where Hezbollah has fought in the past. In addition the crossings to Syria from Lebanon have been destroyed in some cases by Israeli strikes, making it hard for Hezbollah to move fighters via Qusayr or other areas, even if wanted to.
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This is a perfect time for the Syrian opposition to launch an offensive. However, the Syrian groups are divided and in the past this has hampered their abilities. The fact that Turkey will likely prefer not to see a conflict grow near Aleppo is important to consider. However, Ankara wouldn’t mind using this as an excuse to attack Kurdish groups, as it has in the past.
Turkish-backed Syrian rebel groups are often used by Turkey to attack Kurdish groups such as the YPG and also the US-backed SDF. Recently there have been clashes near Manbij and in other areas of eastern Syria.
This means that the HTS offensive is important but it is unclear if the group can achieve more significant gains outside of a narrow corridor of several miles near Aleppo. If the group can reach Aleppo itself this would be a major achievement. The fall of Aleppo in 2016 to the regime was a major setback for the rebels.
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